My Oscar Predictions: Guaranteed to Make You Lose the Betting Pool
At my house, the Academy Awards are primarily about pizza and freeze-framing the TiVo on the faces of the sore losers when the names get announced. The show is usually more fun to watch than I Didn't Know I Was Pregnant. But sometimes not.
And aside from the giddy winners themselves, the fact is that the Oscars only really matter to the Suits who stand to make extra box office money and people at watching parties who've put five bucks into the pool.
Which is why you can consider the predictions I'm about to make, but you probably shouldn't bank on them. Because I suck at it.
In a perfect world my own personal Top 10 on this site would be the nominees. But that's not going to happen. Trash Humpers isn't going to get any respect. And it probably doesn't want any. But Toy Story 3, Black Swan, Inception, The King's Speech, True Grit, The Social Network, 127 Hours, The Town, The Fighter and The Kids Are All Right seem likely. I'd like to see Winter’s Bone and Please Give and I Love You Phillip Morris get attention but I’m not going to hold my breath on those.
They love Jeff Bridges now, they'll feel guilty about not giving it to Colin Firth for A Single Man and they'll think they're cool for nominating Jesse Eisenberg, so those guys are probably certain nominees. James Franco could get his for 127 Hours (no one saw Howl). And so could Aaron Eckhart if the Academy voters can deal with the relentless sadness of Rabbit Hole.
All anyone can talk about right now is Annette Bening. Which is good. She's deserving. And Natalie Portman will get hers; all she has to do is pretend that No Strings Attached isn't happening all around her. Nicole Kidman and her newly expressive forehead will probably be recognized for Rabbit Hole. Michelle Williams was great in Blue Valentine, but it's such a small movie that it might not get seen by enough voters to make a difference. People think that critics and their love of The Small Film influences the Oscars. But we never do.
Best Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale is so good in The Fighter that you'd think he'd gone out and actually become a crack addict before shooting. And Geoffrey Rush is an obvious choice because he's charming in a movie about British royalty. But the rest of them are up for grabs. The Academy likes Jeremy Renner already, so he could get nominated for The Town, Mark Ruffalo is the sad counterpoint to Annette Bening and Julianne More in The Kids Are All Right. And Andrew Garfield is a likely choice for The Social Network, even though the showier and funnier performance came from Armie Hammer as those lawsuit-happy twins.
Best Supporting Actress:
There is nothing more awesome out there right now than scary, domineering Melissa Leo and her crazy cotton candy mound of hair. Unless it's "MTV Girl" Amy Adams. Both are in The Fighter and they'll probably wind up competing against each other. Julianne Moore is almost a sure thing, too, just like Helena Bonham Carter for The King's Speech. And though she most likely will get that nod, for her career's and connection-to-reality's sake I sort of hope Hailee Steinfeld isn't nominated forTrue Grit. Unless you're Anna Paquin that kind of thing can wreak havoc on a child actor.
It'll be these guys--Danny Boyle, Christopher Nolan, Darren Aronofsky, David Fincher and the Coen brothers. Harmony Korine will be at home VHS-taping his friends having sex with mailboxes for Trash Humpers 2.