Box Office Report: Record Drop Begins To Tell Tale of 'Batman v Superman''s Future

Box Office Report: Record Drop Begins To Tell Tale of 'Batman v Superman''s Future

Apr 04, 2016

Here's your estimated 3-day box office returns (new releases bolded):

1. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice - $52.3 million ($261.4 million total)

2. Zootopia - $20.0 million ($275.9 million total)

3. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 - $11.1 million ($36.4 million total)

4. God's Not Dead 2 - $8.1 million ($8.1 million total)

5. Miracles from Heaven - $7.5 million ($46.8 million total)

6. The Divergent Series: Allegiant - $5.7 million ($56.3 million total)

7. 10 Cloverfield Lane - $4.7 million ($63.5 million total)

8. Meet the Blacks - $4.08 million ($4.0 million total)

9. Eye in the Sky - $4.05 million ($6.1 million total)

10. Deadpool - $3.5 million ($355.1 million total)

The Big Stories

On both radio and on my podcast this week, I said I thought Batman v Superman would gross less than $50 million this weekend. I bring this up not to brag or to promote other venues, but I have always believed that prognostication of any kind, whether it be sports, politics, awards or whatever should be called back upon - especially when said guesser was wrong. You have to know who to trust and know that said guesstimations come from a place of knowledge rather than merely feeding a narrative bandwagon. Right or wrong, the Dawn of Justice dropped huge at the U.S. box office this weekend.

But is that the critics' fault or has the audience finally spoken?

 

Holy All-Time Drop, Batman!

Going with what is being reported right now, Zack Snyder's Batman v Superman has just taken an epic drop in its second weekend, and here we are to break it down for you.

At $52.3 million (the Sunday estimate), that puts the drop from its first weekend at 68.4%. That is the fifth-highest drop for a film since 2002 to open on more than 4000 screens. (Sixth place belongs to Man of Steel at 64.6%.) Ahead of BvS are the final Harry Potter film and Twilight #2 & #5 and X-Men Origins: Wolverine, another pretty universally-maligned comic book film which dropped an even 69%. (If the estimate drops on Monday to $51.1 million, it will be the third highest-drop ever.) It is also the second-highest drop amongst the top ten opening weekends ever. The film's U.S. gross is at $261.4 million. That's the 11th best gross for a film after 10 days and only one film in that now top 12 (Harry Potter 8.2) failed to reach $400 million at home. There is evidence to suggest, though, that Batman v Superman will be the second.

Last year's Furious 7 had $251.5 million in ten days. This year's Deadpool had $236.8 million. However their second weekends were $59.5 & $56.4 million compared to BvS' $52.3. Their competition wasn't exactly stiff with The Longest Ride for the Furious crowd and then Risen, Race and The Witch for Deadpool. BvS had to tee up against God's Not Dead 2 (on 2300 screens) and Meet the Blacks (on 1,011.) Furious 7 ultimately finished with $353 million. Meanwhile, Deadpool continues to hang out in the top ten and has just passed that franchise's biggest hit with over $355 million; the highest-grossing "R"-rated film ever worldwide (and second in the U.S.)

 

Tales of the Top Ten (and Beyond)

So you heard there were some challengers to BvS this weekend? God's Not Dead 2 opened on 2,320 screens to the tune of $8.1 million. The 2014 original opened in just 780 theaters to $9.2 million. That film expanded its theater counts over the next three weeks to as many as 1,860 and eventually grossed over $60 million. Unless the word is spread, the sequel is probably headed for less than half that.

While God's Not Dead 2 is the 8th film this year to receive a Rotten Tomatoes score of under 15% (and the first of the bunch to receive an "A" Cinemascore), critics could not even be bothered to review Mike Epps' Meet the Blacks. Granted, neither was screened for the press this week, but God managed to get 21 reviews while The Purge parody got only three by Saturday morning. No matter it still managed $4 million on its way to maybe not $10 million.

Disney's Zootopia continues to be a monster. $20 million in its fifth week and still one more Jungle Book-free weekend to collect. By this time next week it will be on the cusp of $300 million in the U.S. and with over $787 million worldwide it has overtaken Deadpool (at about $750 million) as the top-grossing film in the world this year. Though Batman v Superman will be nipping at its heels soon enough.

The lack of new releases (and potential indifference to BvS) actually aided all of the remaining films in the top ten. My Big Fat Greek Wedding 2 held decently and should have no problem reaching $50 million.

Miracles from Heaven is nearly there and is back on track to reach $60 million.

Allegiant is going to make at least that much and is hoping to stretch to $70 just for a little piece of mind.

10 Cloverfield Lane is only $7 million away from that total and a solid hit for Paramount.

Bleecker Street's Eye in the Sky nearly doubled its theater count this week and moved up the list. It should have no problem collecting another $1.7 million to be the studio's top-grossing film just a couple weeks past the anniversary of its first release (Danny Collins) last March.

Roadside's Hello My Name is Doris dropped off the list but still grossed another $2.3 million to become the ninth highest-grossing film in that studio's history.

Sony Classics expanded its Hank Williams biopic, I Saw the Light, with some of the worst reviews in that prestige studio's history (16% at Rotten Tomatoes) and audiences weren't buying either with only $666,000 in 741 theaters.

Finally, Warner Bros expanded Jeff Nichols' Midnight Special this weekend. To just 58 screens. It has grossed just a paltry $994,235 to date and soon the studio will turn their focus to Barbershop: The Next Cut. Unfortunate that one film incorporating aliens, cults and Michael Shannon has an 85% rating and less than a million dollars to show for it - while another with the same elements and a 29% rating may be the highest grossing film of the year. Until Captain America: Civil War that is.


- Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office on WGN Radio with Nick Digilio as well as on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness Podcast.

[box office figures via Box Office Mojo]

 

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