Box Office Report: Fourth 'Insidious' Gives Good Start to 2018 While 'Jumanji' and 'Last Jedi' Reach for Milestones

Box Office Report: Fourth 'Insidious' Gives Good Start to 2018 While 'Jumanji' and 'Last Jedi' Reach for Milestones

Jan 08, 2018

Insidious: The Last KeyHere's your estimated 3-day box office returns (new releases bolded):

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - $36.0 million ($244.3 million total)

2. Insidious: The Last Key - $29.2 million ($29.2 million total)

3. Star Wars: The Last Jedi - $23.5 million ($572.5 million total)

4. The Greatest Showman - $13.8 million ($75.9 million total)

5. Pitch Perfect 3 - $10.2 million ($85.9 million total)

6. Ferdinand - $7.7 million ($70.4 million total)

7. Molly's Game - $7.0 million ($14.2 million total)

8. Darkest Hour - $6.3 million ($28.3 million total)

9. Coco - $5.5 million ($192.0 million total)

10. All the Money in the World - $3.5 million ($20.1 million total)

 

The Big Stories

Welcome to 2018, everybody! While critics will have to lament sitting through the usual stable of January studio drops, the rest of the country can actually rejoice that they will get to start seeing many of the films appearing on all their top 10 lists. We aren’t quite there yet but it does not appear moviegoers are ready to let go of everything they may have missed over the holidays -- just like the Insidious series hasn’t lost its base quite yet either.

 

Surely They Will Find Another Lock Though

James Wan’s Insidious premiered at the 2010 Toronto Film Festival in their Midnight Madness section. At the time, Wan was coming off of two box office disappointments after his breakthrough, Saw, became one of the horror highlights out of Sundance in 2004 and went on to spawn yearly follow-ups and even a reboot just last year. Dead Silence and Death Sentence made a total of $26.3 million domestically between them and Insidious was picked up by a new company called Film District that was going to use it as its launching pad. The film opened to $13.2 million over April Fool’s Day weekend in 2011 and went on to become a solid word-of-mouth hit to gross over $54 million. Only two films in Film District’s brief three-year history would go on to make more money. One of them was Insidious: Chapter 2, which opened to $40 million in September 2013 and grossed over $83 million. That was less than two months after Wan’s The Conjuring became a major hit that summer.

Wan’s writing partner and Insidious costar, Leigh Whannell, made his directorial debut on Insidious: Chapter 3. It opened to $22 million in June 2015 and finished with $52.2 million. It was also a bit better received than Wan’s Chapter 2 (a 58% compared to 39%) while the original remains the only “fresh” film in the series at 65%. Insidious: The Last Key is hardly a success with critics, kicking off 2018 with a paltry 25%, but that’s one percent for every million at the box office. And compared to recent horror offerings in January, this is a pretty strong showing.

Cloverfield ($40.05), Split ($40.01), The Devil Inside ($33.7), Insidious: The Last Key ($29.2), Mama ($28.4), White Noise ($24.1), Hide and Seek ($21.8), Texas Chainsaw 3-D ($21.7), My Bloody Valentine 3-D ($21.2), The Unborn ($19.8), Hostel ($19.5), Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones ($18.3), Legion ($17.5), Daybreakers ($15.1), The Woman In Black 2 ($15.0), The Rite ($14.7), The Bye Bye Man ($13.5), The Forest ($13.0), One Missed Call ($12.5), The Uninvited ($10.3)

No one is expecting anything close to Split’s haul of over $138 million last year. Not even Split was expecting that. Mama went on to gross over $71 million while The Devil Inside has one of the all-time lowest multiples from opening-to-final gross (1.578) in any month. Texas Chainsaw 3-D (1.579), The Bye Bye Man (1.63), The Woman in Black 2 (1.76), Paranormal Activity: The Marked Ones (1.76) and even Cloverfield (1.99) couldn’t clear the simple 2x multiple mark. So there’s no guarantee that The Last Key crosses the $60 million mark, but with just a $10 million budget and a cumulative series gross of over $400 million worldwide, it hardly matters.


Tales of the Top Ten

The two biggest stories in the Top Ten remain. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle finally bested Star Wars: The Last Jedi to claim the #1 spot at the box office and it is clearer than ever it is headed to over $300 million. That would make it just the sixth film in Sony’s HISTORY to achieve that milestone. Their top four films are Spider-Man 1, 2, 3 and 6. Their fifth is James Bond in Skyfall and that film had $225 million on its 19th day. Jumanji Deux has over $244 million. The Last Jedi will be passing $600 million, if not next weekend, then shortly after. Until it hits $623 million, it will be the sixth highest-grossing domestic film in history. It’s $1.205 billion worldwide is good enough right now for 13th best. By next week it could easily be in the Top Ten. How is this a disappointment again?

Both Pitch Perfect 3 and The Greatest Showman are headed towards $100 million and the latter is likely to surpass the pitches as it becomes a hit with adults who are seeing more and more movies for them creep into the conversation. Darkest Hour expanded into another 790 theaters and with over $28 million is creeping up Focus’ all-time list, where it is currently 23rd. STX moved Aaron Sorkin’s Molly’s Game in to 1,608 theaters, where it made $7 million on top of the $7.2 million it had already made in just 271 theaters since December 22. Guillermo del Toro’s The Shape of Water is over $21 million and will only draw attention when it potentially becomes the most-nominated film at the Oscars on January 23. Steven Spielberg’s The Post will also be on the Best Picture list. It has made $3.8 million to date and expands out wide from its mere 36 theaters next weekend.


If you want to listen to Erik Childress’ Holiday Box Office Prediction Show, you can download the podcast.

Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office on WGN Radio with Nick Digilio as well as on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness Podcast.

[Box office figures via Box Office Mojo.]

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