Box Office Report: 'Winchester' Shot Down by Sequels on Super Bowl Weekend

Box Office Report: 'Winchester' Shot Down by Sequels on Super Bowl Weekend

Feb 05, 2018

WinchesterHere's your estimated 3-day box office returns (new releases bolded):

1. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - $11.0 million ($352.6 million total)

2. Maze Runner: The Death Cure - $10.2 million ($39.7 million total)

3. Winchester - $9.2 million ($9.2 million total)

4. The Greatest Showman - $7.8 million ($137.4 million total)

5. Hostiles - $5.5 million ($21.2 million total)

6. The Post - $5.2 million ($67.1 million total)

7. 12 Strong - $4.7 million ($37.3 million total)

8. Den of Thieves - $4.6 million ($36.2 million total)

9. The Shape of Water - $4.3 million ($44.5 million total)

10. Paddington 2 - $3.1 million ($36.3 million total)


The Big Stories

It’s Super Bowl Weekend and Hollywood is pretty much avoiding it. People are saving their money, anyway. Some are still curious about how the whole Christian Grey/Anastasia Steele thing ends (#notmetoo) and everyone else is already buying tickets for at least two showings of Black Panther the weekend after. What better time than to dump another horror film not good enough to screen for critics ahead of time? It gives those 47 people who still have not seen Jumanji another opportunity. Unless they already have plans for that other big game.


Pulling The Trigger

The Spierig Brothers just got their second theatrical credit in the last 14 weeks. They were responsible for rebooting the Saw franchise with Jigsaw last October. It did not make much of a splash with critics (just 34% at Rotten Tomatoes making it the fourth best-reviewed of the franchise) but $102 million worldwide was more than enough to satisfy its $10 million budget. (A 91% approval from RT fans does seem a bit suspect, though.) One thing their latest film, Winchester, has in common with Jigsaw is that it was not screened for press and its 9% approval sets a new low for the young year. There were only seven wide releases from 2017 to draw less than 10% at the site (The Nut Job 2: Nutty by Nature, The Emoji Movie, The Snowman, Tyler Perry's Boo 2! A Madea Halloween, Rings, Flatliners, Just Getting Started). The latter four did not screen for critics.

Winchester made $9.2 million this weekend which hardly warrants the online ink required to write about it. It’s way down on not just the all-time February opening list but also well down the list of opening weekends on the opening weekend of February. To be precise, it's 35th, behind such classics as Push, Valentine and Sanctum, and just ahead of Loaded Weapon 1 (if the estimates hold). However, the purported $3.5 million budget (they must not have paid everyone working on that house) is going to keep this on the low end of either the red or black ink columns for Lionsgate. Depending on how much was spent on P&A, this could still get into profit with even just a marginal international haul. Based on other February horror titles with similar numbers, i.e. Rings, The Eye, The Lazarus Effect, Valentine, Cursed and Dark Skies, the average multiple is just a scant 2.22. (A24’s The Witch got a 90% critic’s approval and managed a 2.85 multiple.) But Winchester’s numbers suggest its target is going to be around just $20 million domestic.


Tales of the Top Ten

Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle jumped back into the #1 spot this weekend. It is now less than $21 million away from passing Spider-Man 2 as the second highest grossing domestic film in Sony’s history. It is also now over $855 million worldwide. Last week’s #1, Maze Runner: The Death Cure took a significantly bigger drop than either of its predecessors in its second weekend. From 46% to 52% to now 58%, the Maze Runner trilogy is hardly going out with a bang in the U.S. However, with over $97 million internationally so far, it only needs roughly another $49 million to be into profit, which actually continues a pretty good stretch run for Fox.

The Greatest Showman does not have the Oscar nominations to match (just one for Original Song) but it is actually approaching La La Land numbers at the box office. Nearly $138 million and still going strong (with $271 million worldwide), it only needs about $14 million to surpass last year’s holiday musical in gross, if not profit. The $84 million gamble has gotten into the black for the studio. (La La Land cost just $30 million.) The $50 million budgeted The Post is not quite there and is fading a bit faster than expected. At $67 million it is going to pass the last Hanks/Spielberg collaboration in Bridge of Spies but it needs about another $43 million before the stockholders will be happy. Then at the bottom of the Top Ten (one in, one out) you have the two Fox Searchlight films dueling it out for Best Picture. Both The Shape of Water and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri are likely to lead in victories at this year’s Oscars (along with Dunkirk) and have now become the 12th and 15th highest domestic grossers in their history. It will only take $46 million for each to break into the top ten.

As for other Oscar nominees, you have Darkest Hour ($48.8 million), Lady Bird ($43.7), Molly’s Game ($27.0), All the Money in the World ($24.6), I, Tonya ($22.6), The Disaster Artist ($21.0), Phantom Thread ($14.1), Call Me By Your Name ($12.9), Roman J. Israel Esq. ($11.9), The Florida Project ($5.7), The Square ($1.3), The Breadwinner ($271,037) and Sony Classics' Foreign Language Nominee, A Fantastic Woman, which opened in five theaters to $70,978.

Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office on WGN Radio with Nick Digilio as well as on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness Podcast.

[Box office figures via Box Office Mojo.]

Categories: Features, Horror, Box office
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