Box Office Report: 'Black Panther' Hits $400 Million in Ten Days, 'Game Night,' 'Annihilation' on Different Paths

Box Office Report: 'Black Panther' Hits $400 Million in Ten Days, 'Game Night,' 'Annihilation' on Different Paths

Feb 26, 2018

Here's your estimated 3-day box office returns (new releases bolded):

Game Night1. Black Panther - $108.0 million ($400.0 million total)

2. Game Night - $16.6 million ($16.6 million total)

3. Peter Rabbit - $12.5 million ($71.2 million total)

4. Annihilation - $11.0 million ($11.0 million total)

5. Fifty Shades Freed - $6.9 million ($89.5 million total)

6. Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle - $5.6 million ($387.2 million total)

7. The 15:17 to Paris - $3.6 million ($32.2 million total)

8. The Greatest Showman - $5.1 million ($160.7 million total)

9. Every Day - $3.1 million ($3.1 million total)

10. Early Man - $1.7 million ($6.7 million total)


The Big Stories

All trains continue to lead to Wakanda. This is no surprise, given last week's all-timer of a haul and this week's spate of new releases. The numbers are not just incredible but continue to exceed expectations and create a pace that will put it on par with some of the highest-grossing films ever. Heck, it has even passed Jumanji "deux" in just its tenth day. More tickets were sold to Black Panther on Friday than for the combined total of the three major new releases. Major may be the wrong adjective in terms of overall export to theaters, but one studio is more to blame for that than others.


Game On!

We could do an entire breakdown on the opening weekend for Game Night – just like we could do any movie. But it is almost pointless when we can simply point at Jason Bateman's last two comedies and see a direct pattern. Horrible Bosses 2 and Office Christmas Party opened to $15.4 and $16.8 million, respectively. Game Night has opened with $16.6 million. The primary separation between these three films is that while the last two had critical scores of 35% and 41% at Rotten Tomatoes, the latest effort from the guys who gave us both Horrible Bosses films and the Vacation reboot got an 82%.

Will this support carry Game Night past the nearly equal grosses of Bateman's last two comedies, which made $54.4 and $54.7 million? It would take a 3.36 multiple to achieve that. I Love You, Man had similar scores from critics and audiences back in March 2009 and managed to grab a 4.01. The Bateman films concluded with multiples of 3.52 and 3.24 but were done with benefit of the November and December holidays. Game Night is not facing much in terms of adult comedies until Blockers on April 6 (with all respect to The Hurricane Heist). Therefore, a decent word-of-mouth could set this apart and allow it to reach $60 million or higher. The $37 million budgeted film will need around $110 million worldwide to get into profit. It made another $5.2 million outside America.


Tales of the Top Ten

Obviously, the film that has put worrying-about-profit in its rearview mirror is Ryan Coogler's Black Panther. Last week, we suggested that even a 53% drop would keep the film on the necessary pace for a shot at $500 million in America. The challenge was accepted and with a drop of just 46.5% it made $108 million for the second-highest second weekend ever. That is the third-lowest drop for a film that opened to over $135 million as well. (Finding Dory dropped 46% and the all-time champ, Star Wars: The Force Awakens, fell just 39.8%.) If the estimates hold, it will have reached $400 million in just ten days, making it the third-highest grossing film in that timeframe behind Force and Jurassic World. The Last Jedi took 12 days (its 11th day was Christmas). Jedi reached $500 million by the Saturday of its third weekend and Black Panther may indeed reach the same next Saturday or Sunday. That means Black Panther will have jumped into the top ten ALL-TIME grossers in 17 days or less. In under a month, it will also likely be the 33rd film to reach the billion dollar mark. It currently stands at $704 million worldwide.

Paramount got a bad test screening for Annihilation. They wanted reshoots. They didn't get them. So they sold the international rights off to Netflix -- The Cloverfield Paradox-style -- and pretty much buried the film. Released in only 2,012 theaters (George Clooney's Suburbicon was in 2,046,) the film got some ecstatic early reviews (or tweets) from a handful of critics, yet instead of building upon that momentum, the studio withheld further screenings until late during the week of release. As of this weekend, Annihilation is the third best-reviewed film of the year at 87% (behind Paddington 2 and Black Panther – and ahead of Game Night and Early Man). Paramount may never have had a shot with Annihilation, given its WTF plotting that may be a mish-mash of everything from Solaris to The Ruins to John Frankenheimer’s Prophecy, but good early reviews can create curiosity. Audiences may hate the critics coming out (think last year's It Comes at Night and mother!), though Paramount may have had a few more hooked for Friday and Saturday. Those aforementioned films ended with similar multiples of 2.35 and 2.36, meaning Annihiliation is headed for somewhere around $25-26 million domestic (possibly barely beating A24’s limited expansion release of Alex Garland’s Ex Machina), making the reported $55 million budgeted film another loser on the Paramount slate.

Wrapping up the top ten, you have the Jumanji phenomenon continuing, now with over $915 mllion worldwide. Universal's Fifty Shades Freed is over $320 million and looks to limp its way over the $100 million mark in America. Sony's other family entertainment, Peter Rabbit, may also have its eyes on that milestone but may need a few more carrots to see the finish line, especially with A Wrinkle in Time opening in a few weeks. Fox's The Greatest Showman is now over $348 million while Clint Eastwood’s The 15:17 to Paris may just barely make as much as Sully did in its opening weekend. Finally, there was one other wide release this weekend, though in less theaters than Paramount's sci-fi thinker. We welcome Orion Pictures back into the fray as they opened Every Day in 1,667 theaters to $3.1 million. Or to put it into perspective, less than what the Harley Jane Kozak/Elizabeth McGovern film The Favor, featuring Brad Pitt, made back in April 1994. Welcome back, Orion!

Erik Childress can be heard each week evaluating box office on WGN Radio with Nick Digilio as well as on Business First AM with Angela Miles and his Movie Madness Podcast.

[Box office figures via Box Office Mojo.]

Categories: Features, Geek
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