The Awards Line: Final Oscar Nomination Predictions for 2011

The Awards Line: Final Oscar Nomination Predictions for 2011

Jan 23, 2012

So it comes down to this. Weeks and weeks of putting stats together. Watching the last few slots in categories change hands with a last-minute reprieve for King Fincher. Now we must choose. What is going to be nominated for an Academy Award tomorrow morning? Who is going to get snubbed? How many nominees will there actually be? It is not, as in years past, like we can just decide on a quick five or expanded ten list for Best Picture. And all stats for picking the top prize may be thrown out the window as the Academy's new 5% voting procedure takes effect. You have to live and die with the stats sometime -- and who wants to take the brain power to decipher how many voters are willing to put The Tree of Life or Bridesmaids as the #1 slot on their ballots. Let us go down the full list then and make our best guesses. In the case of a few categories where it is unsure how many final nominees there will be, the choices will be ranked. We'll even throw out some alternates, underdogs and some notable stats for you just to spice things up.

BEST PICTURE
1. The Artist
2. The Descendants
3. The Help
4. Midnight in Paris
5. Hugo
6. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
7. Moneyball
8. Bridesmaids
9. War Horse
10. The Tree of Life

NOTABLE STAT: 39 Films since 2001 have been nominated by PGA, WGA & the American Cinema Editors. 34 of them have been nominated for Best Picture. 5 Films of 2011 share this honor (The Descendants, Midnight in Paris, Moneyball, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Bridesmaids). Of the 39 films, 7 of them were nominated in the ACE Comedy/Musical category, like Midnight In Paris and Bridesmaids. The last 3 were nominated and five overall: Juno (2007), Little Miss Sunshine (2006), Sideways (2004), Chicago (2002) and Moulin Rouge! (2001).

BEST DIRECTOR
Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist
Alexander Payne - The Descendants
Martin Scorsese - Hugo
Woody Allen - Midnight in Paris
Terrence Malick - The Tree of Life

ALTERNATE: David Fincher - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
WATCH OUT FOR: Nicolas Winding Refn - Drive

NOTABLE STAT: Aside from Steven Spielberg never receiving an Oscar nomination for directing without first getting one from the DGA, only six directors since 2001 have been nominated without getting at least two nods from any of the seven groups (DGA, LA, NY, Chicago, BAFTA, Globes, BFCA). Of the seven directors listed above, only Fincher has less than two. The other six are the only directors with more than one. If these predictions hold true for Picture & Director, Terrence Malick will be the first director in a year where the Academy hands out more than five Best Picture nominations since Michael Curtiz & 1938's Angels with Dirty Faces to get a nod without having his film up for the big prize. If Malick is replaced, he will be the first director chosen as the year's best by the Los Angeles Film Critics since Spike Lee & 1989's Do The Right Thing to not be nominated by the Academy.

 

BEST ACTOR
George Clooney – The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin – The Artist
Michael Fassbender – Shame
Brad Pitt – Moneyball

ALTERNATE: Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
WATCH OUT FOR: Ryan Gosling - Drive or The Ides of March

NOTABLE STAT: Only five times since 2001 has an actor been nominated by 3 of these five groups (BFCA/Globes/Chicago/SAG/BAFTA) and not received the shot at Oscar. That's out of 47 actors too. Twice it was Ryan Gosling (for Lars & The Real Girl and Blue Valentine) and once for DiCaprio (The Departed). Now, Leonardo has the necessary three while the others being predicted have four or more. Wouldn't it be fun if Gosling rose up to take his slot this year? That is, of course, if the never-nominated Gary Oldman doesn't play spoiler first.

BEST ACTRESS
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis - The Help
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn

ALTERNATE: Charlize Theron - Young Adult
WATCH OUT FOR: Rooney Mara - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

NOTABLE STAT: Since 2001, 25 actresses have been nominated in this category by the BFCA, Globes, SAG and BAFTA. All 25 were Oscar-nominated. Davis, Streep, Swinton and Williams would make it 29.

 

SUPPORTING ACTOR
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
Albert Brooks - Drive
Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Nick Nolte - Warrior
Christopher Plummer - Beginners

ALTERNATE: Andy Serkis - Rise of the Planet of the Apes
WATCH OUT FOR: Patton Oswalt - Young Adult

NOTABLE STAT: 35-of-42 actors here since 2001 were nominated or won at least three of the following groups (BFCA, Globes, Chicago, SAG, BAFTA) and got an Oscar nomination. The five actors above represent the only five supporting actors this year to do so.

SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Bérénice Bejo - The Artist
Jessica Chastain - The Help
Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
Octavia Spencer - The Help
Shailene Woodley - The Descendants

ALTERNATE: Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs
WATCH OUT FOR: Carey Mulligan - Shame

NOTABLE STAT: Taking the Supporting Actor equation into account - minus BAFTA and the freakish-yet-correct moving of Kate Winslet (The Reader) to the Lead category (something that could happen with Bejo this year) - 33-of-36 actresses nominated by 3-of-4 groups (BFCA, Globes, Chicago, SAG) got an Oscar nomination. The five above qualify.

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Artist
Bridesmaids
Midnight in Paris
A Separation
Win Win

ALTERNATE: 50/50
WATCH OUT FOR: Young Adult

NOTABLE STATS: Thomas McCarthy's The Station Agent, The Visitor and now, Win Win were all nominated by the Writer's Guild. But until now his only Oscar nomination was as a credited story writer on Pixar's Up. This would also be Woody Allen's 15th nomination and if he won, his third Oscar for screenwriting would tie him for the most ever with Charles Brackett, Paddy Chayefsky, Francis Ford Coppola and Billy Wilder.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
The Descendants
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
The Help
Hugo
Moneyball

ALTERNATE: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
WATCH OUT FOR: The Ides of March

NOTABLE STAT: Steven Zaillian with his scripts for Dragon Tattoo and Moneyball would be the first screenwriter nominated twice in the same category and the same year since Oliver Stone did it in 1986 for Platoon and Salvador.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
The Tree of Life
War Horse

ALTERNATE: Drive
WATCH OUT FOR: Melancholia

BEST EDITING
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Moneyball
War Horse

ALTERNATE: The Descendants
WATCH OUT FOR: Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

BEST ART DIRECTION
Anonymous
The Artist
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
The Help
Hugo

ALTERNATE: Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy
WATCH OUT FOR: Captain America: The First Avenger

BEST COSTUME DESIGN
The Artist
The Help
Hugo
Jane Eyre
War Horse

ALTERNATE: My Week With Marilyn
WATCH OUT FOR: Midnight In Paris

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Artist
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, Part 2
Hugo
War Horse

ALTERNATE: Drive
WATCH OUT FOR: Hanna

BEST ORIGINAL SONG
“Lay Your Head Down” (Albert Nobbs)
“Life’s a Happy Song” (The Muppets)
“The Living Proof” (The Help)
“Man or Muppet” (The Muppets)
“Star Spangled Man” (Captain America: The First Avenger)

ALTERNATE: “Pictures in My Head” (The Muppets)
WATCH OUT FOR: "Hello Hello" (Gnomeo & Juliet)

NOTABLE STAT: Only two songs from any film can be nominated in this category. This is due to a 2009 rule change after Dreamgirls and Enchanted each got three nominations in consecutive years. Even though neither film actually won an Oscar here amongst their six nominations, the Academy has now screwed The Muppets out of three deserved shots at the prize.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Hugo
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

ALTERNATE: Real Steel
WATCH OUT FOR: X-Men: First Class

BEST MAKEUP
Albert Nobbs
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
The Iron Lady

ALTERNATE: Hugo
WATCH OUT FOR: Anonymous

BEST SOUND MIXING
The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
Hugo
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
War Horse

ALTERNATE: Super 8
WATCH OUT FOR: The Artist

BEST SOUND EDITING
Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2
Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol
Rise of the Planet of the Apes
Super 8
Transformers: Dark of the Moon

ALTERNATE: The Adventures of Tintin
WATCH OUT FOR: Fast Five

NOTABLE STAT: 2010 was the first time since 2003 that less than three films received nominations for both the Sound Mixing and Editing categories.

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
Rango
The Adventures of Tintin
Arthur Christmas
Puss In Boots
Winnie the Pooh

ALTERNATE: Kung Fu Panda 2
WATCH OUT FOR: Rio

NOTABLE STAT: Shrek 2 and Toy Story 3 are the only sequels ever nominated in this category.

BEST DOCUMENTARY
Battle for Brooklyn
Hell and Back Again
Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory
Project Nim
We Were Here

ALTERNATE: Buck
WATCH OUT FOR: Under Fire: Journalists in Combat

BEST FOREIGN FILM
Footnote (Israel)
In Darkness (Poland)
Monsieur Lazhar (Canada)
Pina (Germany)
A Separation (Iran)

 

ALTERNATE: Warriors of the Rainbow: Seediq Bale (Taiwan)
REST OF SHORT LIST: Bullhead (Belgium), Omar Killed Me (Morocco), Superclásico (Denmark)

NOMINATION PREDICTION BREAKDOWN
10 - The Artist, Hugo
8 - The Help
6 - The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo
5 - The Descendants, Harry Potter, Moneyball, War Horse
3 - Albert Nobbs, Bridesmaids, Midnight In Paris, Mission: Impossible - Ghost Protocol, Rise of the Planet of the Apes
2 - The Iron Lady, The Muppets, My Week With Marilyn, A Separation, The Tree of Life

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